MMOG Chart 22.0

MMOG charts has released the 22.0 update of their tracking charts, following developments in MMO gaming. Their analysis and conclusions looks, amongst other things, at the current era of MMO gaming.

The Age of Warcraft: November 2004 Today
Starting with the release of World of Warcraft, everything we thought we knew about the size of the market changed. Not only was World of Warcraft a success, but also it far outstripped any other subscription-based MMOG to date, and surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. While the majority of WoW’s subscribers are in Asia (China specifically), it has also become the market share leader in North America and Europe as well. A good deal of WoW’s success comes for the Blizzard brand, which brought in a lot of new gamers into the market who had never subscribed to an MMOG before, but the game also set a new bar for the amount of content, ease of use, and level of polish expected from a top-tier MMOG title. WoW’s expected market rival, SOE’s EverQuest II, never really achieved the same level of market acceptance. The impact of WoW has been felt on almost all existing MMOG titles, most notably Dark Age of Camelot, EverQuest, and Lineage I and II.

Where does the market go from here? Well, it’s still increasing on a steady curve, although some years the market seems to get ahead of itself and in others it falls behind. One interesting issue is the current market share by genre. As of February 2008, 94.1% of the MMOG of the market falls into the category of fantasy RPG; 4.0% in sci-fi RPG (including superheroes), 0.2% in combat simulation / FPS, and 1.7% in the social / other category. To me these numbers indicate a hugely disproportionate emphasis on the fantasy setting and remember, this does not include many of the predominately fantasy MMOGs in the Asian markets. Even though some MMOGs in the FPS or social / other categories have a sci-fi setting, this nevertheless makes for quite a lopsided market. Consider movies or television, where science fiction is featured far more often than high fantasy, with a correspondingly higher financial success (Lord of the Rings being a notable exception). Several companies are seeking to exploit this untapped potential; recently launched and future titles Huxley, Tabla Rasa, The Agency, Stargate Worlds, and Warhammer 40K Online all feature a science fiction setting, and Huxley is also an FPS to boot. Yet other new entrants continue to focus on the fantasy genre: Age of Conan, Aion, Hero’s Journey, Lord of the Rings Online, Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, and Warhammer Online, as well as several other titles.

The Active Subscribers 200k+ gives a predictable picture, as the green line of WoW shot into the distance of 10 million subscribers. The next following competitors (Lineage I and II and RuneScape) are stuck at 1 million.

The more easy to view Active Subscribers 200k-700k chart shows newcomers Tabula Rasa (125k) and LotR Online (200k) doing relatively well. Meanwhile, EverQuest tumbled to below 200k and City of Heroes/Villains to below 150k, while Dark Age of Camelot appears to be in a free fall as it hits 50k. D&D Online and EverQuest II appear to be more up and down.

The market share by game shows woW now represents 62% of the MMO market, while the market share by genre paints a depressing picture of setting originality in MMOs.